IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.4	#141
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.6	#330
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.3	#134

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.1	#165

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.6%	26.4%	18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.1	13.6	14.6

.500 or above	83.8%	88.9%	70.7%
.500 or above in Conference	86.6%	87.8%	83.6%
Conference Champion	27.4%	30.9%	18.6%
Last Place in Conference	1.3%	0.9%	2.4%

First Four	2.1%	1.8%	3.1%
First Round	23.1%	25.5%	16.9%
Second Round	3.2%	3.9%	1.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.8%	1.0%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Neutral) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 6
Quad 4	13 - 3	17 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 27, 2020	241	Florida Gulf Coast	W	68-62	72%
Dec 01, 2020	319	SE Louisiana	W	78-66	86%
Dec 12, 2020	154	@ Loyola Marymount	L	63-65	43%
Dec 19, 2020	108	@ Pepperdine	L	71-77	29%
Dec 27, 2020	119	@ UC Irvine	L	65-70	34%
Dec 28, 2020	119	@ UC Irvine	L	65-70	34%
Jan 01, 2021	298	Cal St. Fullerton	W	74-62	85%
Jan 02, 2021	298	Cal St. Fullerton	W	74-62	85%
Jan 15, 2021	232	UC San Diego	W	66-57	77%
Jan 16, 2021	232	UC San Diego	W	66-57	77%
Jan 22, 2021	308	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	77-70	73%
Jan 23, 2021	308	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	77-70	73%
Jan 29, 2021	204	@ UC Davis	W	69-68	54%
Jan 30, 2021	204	@ UC Davis	W	69-68	54%
Feb 05, 2021	228	Long Beach St.	W	76-67	77%
Feb 06, 2021	228	Long Beach St.	W	76-67	76%
Feb 12, 2021	200	@ Hawaii	W	69-68	53%
Feb 13, 2021	200	@ Hawaii	W	69-68	53%
Feb 19, 2021	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-61	75%
Feb 20, 2021	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-61	74%
Feb 26, 2021	208	@ UC Riverside	W	63-61	55%
Feb 27, 2021	208	@ UC Riverside	W	63-61	55%
Mar 05, 2021	315	Cal Poly	W	76-62	88%
Mar 06, 2021	315	Cal Poly	W	76-62	88%
Projected Record						16 - 8	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.5	2.8	6.0	7.4	5.9		22.6	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.5	4.9	7.1	5.5	2.3	0.4		21.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.6	4.8	6.0	2.6	0.5	0.0			15.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.6	4.4	4.1	1.4	0.1					11.8	4th
5th								0.1	1.1	3.2	2.9	0.7	0.0						8.0	5th
6th							0.1	1.0	2.4	1.9	0.4	0.0							5.9	6th
7th						0.1	0.8	1.8	1.4	0.3	0.0								4.4	7th
8th					0.2	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0									2.7	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1											1.5	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0											0.6	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.3	2.4	3.8	5.3	7.1	9.5	11.1	12.9	12.6	12.0	9.7	6.3			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	93.5%	5.9		5.1	0.8	0.0
15-1	76.3%	7.4		5.2	2.1	0.1
14-2	49.9%	6.0		3.4	2.2	0.4	0.0
13-3	22.0%	2.8		0.9	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-4	3.8%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-5	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	22.6%	22.6		14.6	6.6	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	6.3%		47.8%	46.2%	1.6%	12.8											0.0	0.1	0.9	1.3	0.6	0.1		3.3		2.9%
15-1	9.7%		42.8%	42.8%	0.0%	13.5												0.0	0.4	1.7	1.4	0.5	0.0	5.5		0.1%
14-2	12.0%		32.5%	32.5%		14.0													0.2	0.9	1.6	1.0	0.2	8.1
13-3	12.6%		27.0%	27.0%		14.6													0.0	0.4	1.1	1.5	0.5	9.2
12-4	12.9%		19.2%	19.2%		15.0														0.1	0.5	1.1	0.7	10.5
11-5	11.1%		13.4%	13.4%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	9.6
10-6	9.5%		11.1%	11.1%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	8.4
9-7	7.1%		8.7%	8.7%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.5	6.5
8-8	5.3%		5.4%	5.4%		15.9																0.0	0.3	5.1
7-9	3.8%		4.4%	4.4%		16.0																	0.2	3.6
6-10	2.4%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																	0.1	2.3
5-11	1.3%																							1.3
4-12	0.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
3-13	0.2%																							0.2
2-14	0.1%																							0.1
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		20.6%	20.5%	0.1%	14.2											0.0	0.2	1.5	4.5	5.3	5.3	3.9	79.4		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	5.1	0.6	0.6	12.5	26.8	23.8	11.3	21.4	1.2	1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	78.3%	10.5								17.4	2.2	19.6	2.2	37.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	74.3%	11.7							2.9		2.9			68.6